Investment Fraud Early Warning Signs

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My comments on April 3 about investment fraud and risk governance struck a chord. As a co-presenter for "Going Beyond the Essential Background Checks: Accessing Crucial Information About the Management Team, Board of Directors, the Economics for the Team and the Succession of the Investment Staff," 4th Annual Due Diligence & On-Going Monitoring of Alternative Investments Summit, Financial Research Associates, LLC, I talked about the numerous reasons why a typical background check is necessary but insufficient.

Send an email to Dr. Susan Mangiero if you would like more information about investment fraud thought leadership under way.

In the meantime, some hot button items that should be considered by institutional investors and asset managers that want to be green lighted by pensions, endowments, foundations, family offices and sovereign wealth funds include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Legal Ownership Structure - Ask for information about who owns what, who has voting rights and whether or when assets can be transferred across legal and tax jurisdictions. If an asset manager cannot or will not provide an organization chart and legal documentation that explains an often complex ownership structure, think twice about taking next steps. I resigned from an assigment to value a U.S. hedge fund limited liability partnership ("LLP") when the CEO and the company's attorney begrudgingly provided by-laws and an organization chart that illustrated firsthand a hard-to-understand web of cross-ownership (offshore and onshore). Should trouble occur, it is imperative to understand how economic rights are distributed and on what basis.
  • Job Descriptions - A titular executive is not the same thing as having an experienced and knowledgeable person fill a critical function. As an expert witness, I wrote a report that pointed out, among other things, that the Chief Risk Officer was in name only. The actual person who bore that title was anything but a risk management professional.
  • Internal Controls - Entire books have been written about the importance of vetting operational risks and internal controls. Suffice it to say, make sure that important tasks such as trading and approving wire transfers are each carried out by different individuals. Transactions should be verified on a regular basis by independent parties. Checks and balances should be in place to avoid breach for items such as surpassing trade size, making a material change to investment reports and/or modifying the approval process for moving money.
  • Complexity and Model Risk - As I discussed in "Model Risk and A $242 Million Overlay" (February 3, 2011), models can be nested so that mistakes made at one level can be catastrophic if not caught early and corrected. That is exactly what happened in a matter relating to AXA Rosenberg, costing the firm nearly $250 million. Someone has to kick the tires on a regular basis. Model audits should be conducted by individuals who are not going to be compensated on the basis of a model's outcome(s).  When trading strategies are complex, it is sometimes tough to identify problem areas. I remember the words of one of my doctoral professors vividly because they still ring true today. "If you can't explain a trading strategy or make-up of a model, you don't know enough to make important decisions."
  • Key Person Risk - Marquee name traders may be a draw for institutional and high net worth investors but proceed with caution. First of all, banking on a name trader does not guarantee that good processes are in place. Second, it is critical to know if key person insurance is in place to address the early exit of a trader or executive and the exact nature of the coverage. Also inquire about what happens if a key person gets a divorce and an ownership stake in the asset management firm becomes part of the settlement. Investigate whether the firm has a succession plan, a non-compete contract for departing executives and/or buy-sell agreement to guide how partners leave or join the firm.
  • Intellectual Property - Ask about ownership of a patent, trademark, proprietary technology and/or marketing/sales collateral. In one situation, there was a real concern that the head of sales would have carte blanche to use the client list on behalf of a competitor. Depending on the costs to acquire each client, use of a list elsewhere could deal a crushing blow to a firm and by extension, destroy value for limited partners and/or investors in a particular fund or fund family.
  • Governance and Committee Structure - A board of advisors can serve as a line of defense for investors in a fund as long as its members do their job well. I recall being interviewed to serve as an expert for a large hedge fund litigation. After having read the initial documents, I told the attorneys that the existence of a pricing committee and a risk management committee was impressive and asked to see the meeting minutes. The response was that neither committee had ever met. Of course a committee could meet on a regular basis but never address critical issues and thereby be ineffective, offering no safeguard for an investor(s).
  • Vendor Contracts - Unless someone is doing a comprehensive review of service provider contracts, an investor is likely to encounter a coverage gap. In the matter of hard-to-value investing for example, many times an independent verification of prices is left undone when fund of funds managers, prime brokers, custodian banks and/or consultants accept numbers from hedge fund and private equity funds "as is" as part of their respective contracts.
  • Investment Reports - Financial statements, audited or otherwise, do not always provide the same information on investment reports. The topic of performance reporting is left for another post as it is both broad and complicated. Suffice it to say however, all investors should be treated equally in terms of information access. With side letters and side pocket arrangements, disclosure may be limited and provided on a selective basis. As an expert on a regulatory enforcement case, I explained what industry standards exist for reporting true economic risks and returns versus statements that may be misleading at best. The hedge fund being investigated had topped off losses for some investors but not others and used some creative ways to report results.
  • Borrowing Capacity - In 2008 and 2009, numerous investors were taken by surprise when asset managers were unable to honor redemptions (if allowed in the first place). One indicator (and there were many) of a liquidity crisis was the inability for some asset managers to borrow enough cash to keep going. Even worse, some prime brokers pulled back existing credit lines and/or charged considerably more which in turn depressed potential upside for investors. Ask about the current costs of borrowing and the capacity and sources for an asset manager to borrow more if needed. Depending on the leverage inherent in an asset manager's trading strategy, it may be necessary to ask for a copy of borrowing agreements and to understand what could trigger a margin call(s).

The list of problem areas is long and worthy of close scrutiny, ideally by an independent third party who can work with the internal auditor, external auditor and/or board of directors (assuming that all of these parties are focused on best practices and not contributing to a fund's downfall). Institutional and high-net worth investors alike should monitor these and other risk factors before writing a check.

Background checks are invaluable tools for investors who want to conduct proper due diligence. Importantly however, a background check is simply not going to provide the kind of information described above that can make a difference between investment success and failure.

Insider trading, anti-money laundering, investment fraud techniques and much more are left for future blog posts...

ERISA Pension Plans: Due Diligence for Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds

Join me on May 1, 2012 for a timely and interesting program about alternative investment fund due diligence and other considerations for ERISA plan sponsors, their counsel and consultants. Click here for more information.

This CLE webinar will provide ERISA and asset management counsel with a review of effective due diligence practices by institutional investors. Best practices will be offered to mitigate government scrutiny and suits by plan participants.

Description

With the DOL's and SEC's new disclosure rules and heightened concerns about compliance and valuation, corporate pension plans that invest in alternatives must focus on properly vetting asset managers more than ever before or risk being sued for poor governance and excessive risk-taking.

The urgencies are real. The use of private funds by asset managers is crucial for 401(k) and defined benefit plan decision makers. Understanding the obligations of private funds is essential to any retirement funds with limited partnership interests.

In addition, suits and enforcement actions against asset managers make it incumbent on counsel to hedge fund and private equity fund managers to fully grasp and advise on full compliance with the duties of ERISA fiduciaries to plan participants.

Listen as our ERISA-experienced panel provides a guide to the legal and investment landmines that can destroy portfolio values and expose institutional investors and fund managers to liability risks. The panel will outline best practices for implementing effective due diligence procedures.

Outline

  • ERISA fiduciary duties for institutional investors
    1. Hedge funds and private equity funds compared to traditional investments
  • Regulatory developments
    1. Disclosure
    2. Compliance
    3. Valuation
  • Developments in private litigation involving pension plan fiduciaries and alternative fund managers
  • Best practices for developing due diligence plans
  • Benefits

    The panel will review these and other key questions:

  • What are the regulatory concerns for ERISA pension plans that allocate assets to hedge funds and private equity funds?
  • What are the potential consequences for service providers that fail to comply with new fee, valuation and service provider due diligence regulations?
  • What can counsel to pension plans and asset managers learn from recent private fund suits relating to collateral, risk-taking, pricing, insider trading and much more?
  • How should ERISA plans and asset managers prepare to comply with expanded fiduciary standards?
  • Following the speaker presentations, you'll have an opportunity to get answers to your specific questions during the interactive Q&A.

    Faculty

    Susan Mangiero, Managing Director
    FTI Consulting, New York

    She has provided testimony before the ERISA Advisory Council, the OECD and the International Organization of Pension Supervisors as well as offered expert testimony and behind-the-scenes forensic analysis, calculation of damages and rebuttal report commentary for various investment governance, investment performance, fiduciary breach, prudence, risk and valuation matters.

    Alexandra Poe, Partner
    Reed Smith, New York

    She has over 25 years of experience in investment management practice counseling managers of hedge funds, private equity funds, institutional accounts, mutual funds and broker-dealer advised programs. She counsels hedge and private equity fund advisers in all stages of their business and due diligence matters.

    Pension Risk Management and Governance: Challenges and Opportunities in a New Era

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    Please join me and fellow panelists on January 24, 2012 fro. 4 to 6 pm for a topical discussion about pension risk management and governance. Given that the last few years have posed unprecedented challenges for plan sponsors, both corporate and public, as well as their asset managers and consultants, life in employee benefit land will never be the same again. Market volatility, low interest rates, increased scrutiny about carrying out fiduciary duties, calls for better disclosure and greater complexity keep pension decision-makers busy.

    Hear what legal and financial professionals have to say about what keeps plan sponsors and their advisors and asset managers up at night and how they can implement best practices for pension risk management within a fiduciary framework.

    The roster of speakers who will address both defined benefit and defined contribution plan best practices and concerns include:

    • Mr. William Carey, President, F-Squared Retirement Solutions
    • Attorney Gordon Eng, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer, SKY Harbor Capital Management, LLC
    • Dr. Susan Mangiero, CFA, FRM, Risk and Valuation Consultant and Expert Witness
    • Attorney Martin J. Rosenburgh, CFA

    Continue Reading

    Prioritizing Risk Management

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    I recently had the pleasure of contributing an article about the importance of risk management and service provider due diligence to The Glass Hammer website. For those who are not familiar with the group, check out www.TheGlassHammer.com to learn about this award-winning blog and online community created for women executives in finance, law, technology and big business. See below or click on "Thought Leaders: Prioritizing Risk Management" to read the full text of this commentary about the benefits of risk mitigation well done and the costly consequences of inattention or sloppy practices.

    Full Text:

    Thought Leaders: Prioritizing Risk Management, July 14, 2011, 1:00 pm

    Contributed by Susan Mangiero, PhD, Investment Risk Governance Consultant and Author

    For those financial institutions which have yet to grasp the importance of identifying, measuring, managing, and monitoring risks on a comprehensive basis, time may not be on their side. Regulators and litigators alike are forcing change.

    There are countless individuals who want better information from their service providers about risk and are prepared to vote with their feet if they don’t get good answers. After all, these institutional investors themselves are confronted with a bevy of new mandates that require transparency. The good news is that change opens the door to business opportunities. Enlightened organizations that have good processes in place and have nothing to hide can differentiate themselves from competitors. Providing clients with education and data tools offers yet another way for asset managers, consultants, banks, and advisors to forge stronger relationships with their pension, endowment, foundation and family office clients. On the flip side, those who are reluctant to explain how they manage their financial, operational and legal risks may lose clients or worse yet, could end up as defendants in a lawsuit.

    Pay to play conflicts, questions about hidden fees, state and federal legislation and new accounting rules are a few of the forces at work to ensure that trillions of institutional dollars are in good hands. Effective investment stewardship is no longer a luxury. Recent surveys confirm that buy side decision-makers continue to emphasize governance and risk management for their organizations as well as providers of products and services. Institutional investors can ill afford to lose money after a tumultuous few years. Investment committee members who give short shrift to fiduciary duties could end up being investigated by regulators or sued. According to federal court data, the number of ERISA lawsuits is going up. Factor in investment arbitrations, enforcement actions and “piggyback” securities litigation allegations and it is clear that unhappy investors are not going to accept the status quo.

    1. Fiduciary Focus

    Besides efforts underway by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has proposed an expanded definition of who should serve as a fiduciary to ERISA employee benefit plans. If adopted, countless more professionals will be tasked with demonstrating procedural prudence when it comes to the investment of over $30 trillion in money from corporate retirement plan sponsors. States are likewise seeking change in the form of trust law reforms that tighten accountability for the investment of monies held by endowments, foundations and charities. The questions now being addressed by judges and arbitration panels relate to “excessive” risk-taking, insufficient diversification, absence of independent assessments of hard-to-value instruments and oversight failures that have led to large losses that might have been highly preventable.

    One asset management firm recently settled with the SEC for $242 million over a mistake with one of its risk management models. Another firm just settled with the SEC for $200 million due to problems in the way subprime securities were marked. A few years ago, a Northeast pension plan was sanctioned by the DOL for not having thoroughly vetted valuation numbers provided by one of its hedge fund managers.

    When I testified before the ERISA Advisory Council in 2008, I emphasized that having good valuation policies and procedures is essential because it impacts so many decisions having to do with asset allocation, hedging and fees paid.

    Continue Reading

    Pension Risk Management and Funding

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    According to "Pension Fund Funding Ratios Dipped in Q2" (July 9, 2011), the average pension plan saw its funding ratio decrease by around two percent during the second quarter of 2011. Several factors were at work. First, higher U.S. Treasury yields "led to a lower corporate bond yield curve and pension discount rate" which in turn increased the reported number for what is owed to retirees. Second, gains on invested assets were not enough to offset higher pension liabilities.

    What's interesting is that this recent version of the U.S. Pension Fund Fitness Tracker, published by UBS Global Asset Management, cites an economic boost for those plan sponsors that "adopted a pension risk management framework," with ongoing attention paid to market risk, interest rate risk, credit spreads and what they describe as active management risks.

    In 2010, the OECD published "Pension Funds' Risk-Management Framework: Regulation and Supervisory Oversight" by Fiona Stewart in which readers are reminded that "Some of the decline in assets recently experienced by pension funds around the world may well have been avoided through stronger risk-management frameworks..."

    Given the importance of the topic, this blogger, Dr. Susan Mangiero, is working on a paper about the fiduciary duty to hedge. In the meantime, interested readers may want to check out the SSRN Pension Risk Management e-Journal that is edited by Dr. Susan Mangiero and Dr. Shantaram Hegde.

    The Cats and Dogs of Derivative Instrument Regulation

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    In survey after survey, capital market participants complain about regulatory overload and complexity. The last thing any compliance officer wants to have happen is that his or organization is trying to do everything right but ends up on the wrong side of the law because rules differ across jurisdictions. Then there are the clever arbitrageurs who recognize regulatory differences as opportunities to exploit loopholes.

    In the case of the global over-the-counter derivatives market, sized in excess of $600 trillion in terms of notional principal amount, Reuters reporter Jim Brunsden describes disparate mandates from European Union and U.S. regulators, respectivley. According to "Differing EU, U.S. Derivative Rules May Discriminate, Groups Say" (July 6, 2011), margin amounts and "different sets of licensing rules on cross-border business" could introduce costly uncertainty for investors.

    In a July 5, 2011 letter to The Honorable Timothy Geithner and Commissioner Michael Barnier, ISDA and other financial market organizations listed some of the extra-territorial concerns that should reflect coordination:

    • Licensing, authorisation or registration rules for entities to trade derivatives;
    • Application of margin requirements to banks, broker dealers and asset managers with operations throughout the world;
    • Extent to which foreign operating entities would be subject to competing authorities in multiple jurisdictions even when the parent entity is complying with home country regulations;
    • Standards for recognition of central counterparties ("CCPs") in each others' jurisdictions to minimize ambiguity; and
    • Indemnification provisions as relates to data collection by U.S. based Swap Data Repositories ("SDRs"), pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Act.

    Those institutional investors that employ derivatives - directly or indirectly - are wise to track the regulatory discussions underway. Their costs, and related investment performance, are likely to be impacted by the constraints borne by major market dealers.

    For further information, check out the following items:

    Risk Management Survey Says More Work Is Needed

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    After the last few years, it seemed that risk managers were finally getting their due respect. Alas, a new survey suggests that more work remains to be done. According to "Too good to fail? New challenges for risk management in financial services" by Rob Mitchell with the Economist Intelligence Unit, "Inculcating and embedding a stronger enterprise-wide risk culture remains an ongoing challenge."

    Sponsored by SAS, this March 2011 inquiry (and June 2011 report) finds that organizations still grapple with complexity, with about half of the 315 executives expressing concerns that their "employer's risk management processes are well placed to deal with volatility" and roughly one out of three organizations being able to thoroughly vet tail risk. (Note that "tail risk" is typically defined as the chance that investment prices or returns will be "extreme" in that realized performance falls outside of three standard deviations from the average.)

    Other findings of the survey suggest that the risk management function is getting support, albeit limited, from atop the corporate food chain. More than forty percent of respondents announce that "their management boards have beefed up their risk expertise." One-half of polled professionals claim that "their boards are demanding more rigorous risk reporting."

    A central message of the survey is that risk management reforms are underway but that risk management needs to be seen as less of a support function and more of a strategic mainstay that addresses organizational fortunes on a holistic basis. When asked about areas in which the skills of risk management professionals should be improved, one out of every three respondents cite the "ability to see the interdependencies between different categories of risks to the organisation."

    Main barriers to effective risk management include regulatory uncertainty, "poor communication across departments," incomplete data, absence of authority for the risk management role, "lack of adequate investment" and poor real-time "(intra-day) risk management." With Basel III looming for a 2019 implementation, systematically important financial institutions ("SIFIs") could see profits lowered as capital requirements tighten, forcing more and better attention to be paid to the relationship between the cost of offering various products and services and risk mitigation.

    In Risk Management for Pensions, Endowments and Foundations, Dr. Susan Mangiero talks about the urgent need for training across functions and job titles so it is alarming that 44 percent of respondents cite a 7 percent drop in the risk management training of the general workforce in 2011 from 2010. Fifty-four percent of risk executives describe a 9 percent decline in data quality and integrity with mergers and acquisitions leading to a related problem of disparate information technology systems. Without a good process in place to collect information, it is hard to measure and manage risks thereafter.

    At a time when risk management is arguably as important as it has ever been in terms of protecting enterprise value, Financial Times reporter Justin Baer writes that "US regulators are warning banks to protect their risk-management staff and systems from any planned cost cuts as Wall Street grapples with a challenging year of meagre results." "US banks warned against shedding risk staff" references the Senior Supervisors Group of global bank regulators as urging financial institutions to do much more in the area of building a robust risk mitigation infrastructure.

    Should an elephant fall, the audience will hear a thud. Should global financial institutions give short shrift to improving risk management policies, procedures, systems and practices (for those companies for which this applies), the economic "noise" will be deafening. Now is not the time to move backwards with respect to risk management.

    Note to Readers:

    Financial Model Mistakes Can Cost Millions of Dollars

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    In a recently published article about financial models entitled "Financial Model Mistakes Can Cost Millions of Dollars" (American Bar Association, Section of Litigation, Expert Witnesses, May 31, 2011), Dr. Susan Mangiero defines model risk and explains why it is so important. Referencing the recent $242 million enforcement action by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a result of model mistakes made by a well-known asset management firm, this financial expert cites the heightened regulatory and litigation imperatives with respect to risk and valuation models. She concludes the article by listing some of the ways to mitigate risk. These include, but are not limited to the following:

    • Hire knowledgeable programmers with capital market experience;
    • Create and follow a set of policies and procedures that govern how and who will validate financial models over time and what will trigger revisions in a model(s);
    • Avoid conflicts of interest that would reward managers for ignoring problems and would potentially preclude an independent and objective assessment of problems and related corrective action(s);
    • Test assumptions for validity in stable markets as well as extreme circumstances;
    • Stress a model using a sufficient number of economic scenarios to gauge its predictive power and whether results can be relied upon in both good or bad times;
    • Educate personnel about how a particular model is supposed to work;
    • Establish a response strategy should a problem occur and investors need to be informed before things get out hand;
    • Scrap models that are overly complex and expensive to replicate;
    • Don't be afraid to ask questions about inputs, data quality, results, and concerns; and
    • Invite informed outsiders to offer an independent and regular critique on a confidential basis.

    Money At Risk - No Time To Sleep

    Asleep on the Couch.jpegAt the mall the other day, I was making a purchase when the fire alarm sounded. I asked the cashier how she could remain calm and wondered aloud if we should expedite things and make a dash for the exit. Her response was that it was a false alarm, one of many and we could ignore the sound with no worries. I completed my sale and left. As I got in my car, I noticed two fire trucks rushing in, ready to do battle with what I assumed to be a fire. So much for ignoring the obvious.

    Having worked on cases that allege financial fraud, I've observed this "never mind" approach numerous times, often to the detriment of the party(ies) that looked askance.

    Good risk managers think ahead, contemplating the worst case scenarios (financial and operational). Once they stress test the unthinkable, to the extent possible, they consider possible contingency plans and implement the best choice(s).

    More to come on the important topic of recognizing "Money at Risk" and prudently thinking ahead.

    Target Date Funds and Litigation

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    In "Pension Plan Sponsors Take Freewheeling Fund Companies to Court" (March 10, 2011), Institutional Investor journalist Maureen Nevin Duffy describes the landscape for target date funds as uncertain if unhappy plan participants seek redress in court. As with so many other situations, risk takes center stage. I am quoted as stating that "Two or more asset funds may appear identifical on the surface but have dramatically different risk profiles." Other persons interviewed suggest the need for more clarity to better understand around how any particular target date fund is structured. Not having sufficient information about risk controls appears to be another worry.

    Although target date funds can vary materially in terms of structure and resulting risk vulnerability, the U.S. Government Accountability Office has tried to focus on common concerns such as why annual rates of returns have varied over the 2005 to 2009 period from +28 percent to -31 percent and how plan sponsors can bette apprise themselves of salient risks to compare choices on a comparable basis. Participant education, asset allocation "glide paths," target date fund disclosures and appropriateness for different aged employees are other areas listed as important though this tally is far from exhaustive.

    Interested readers may want to check out the following items:

    Housing Loan Risk Disclosures

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    In "Fannie, Freddie Proble Focuses on Disclosure" (March 14, 2011) Wall Street Journal reporters Nick Timiraos and Jean Eaglesham write that the former CEO of Fannie Mae has received a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that alleges knowledge of improper risk disclosures. An earlier response by Mr. Mudd, now CEO of Fortress Investment Group LLC, was published by Bloomberg on March 11, 2011 and describes said disclosures and procedures as "accurate and complete" and "previewed by federal regulators." Click to read "Statement by Fortress CEO Daniel Mudd on SEC Wells Notice" by Lawrence Roberts, Bloomberg, March 11, 2011.

    As I wrote on August 28, 2008 in "Fannie Mae Gets a New Chief Risk Officer," changes appeared to be underway at that time, begging for details. For one thing, how was Fannie Mae's new focus on risk management different from past practices? Second, several of the Fannie Mae board members added since early 2004 were no longer listed as active in 2008 but certainly held themselves out as risk management experts. What was their contribution to improving policies, procedures and oversight? According to a November 2007 letter to shareholders by then chairman of the Fannie Mae board Stephen B. Ashley, "These past three years, Fannie Mae has undertaken a series of fundamental changes to remediate our accounting and controls and to put the company on a solid foundation going forward. These changes have done more than fix what needed fixing about the company."

    On September 30, 2010, U.S. District Judge Paul A. Crotty granted defendants' motion to dismiss allegations regarding Fannie Mae's "subprime and Alt-A mortgage exposure and financial reporting as to all the Individual Defendants" but denied defendants' "motion to dismiss as to Plaintiffs' allegations regarding Fannie's internal controls and risk management" as to then CEO and Chief Risk Officer, respectively. Click to read "In re Fannie Mae 2008 Securities Litigation," United States District Court, Southern District of New York, filed September 30, 2010.

    As I've long predicted, examinations about existing best practices (or lack thereof) are going to continue. If there is a silver lining to the financial fallout and risk management oversight failures that make for headlines aplenty, it is that "good players" will hopefully be rewarded for their discipline and those who have been remiss will start to pay more attention to the nuts and bolts of risk management.

    Regarding Fannie Mae and its putative importance as part of the national housing finance market, shareholders and taxpayers welcome insights about who knew what and when and why.

    Fiduciary Duties, Post Madoff

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    In "The Post-Madoff Emergence of a Fiduciary Duty of Due Diligence - Recent Regulatory Enforcement Actions and Their Impact on Best Practices for Investment Managers" (Practical Compliance & Risk Management For The Securities Industry, September-October 2009), Attorneys Scott A. Meyers and James G. Martignon describe a renewed scrutiny of the relationship between hedge funds, investment advisers, broker-dealers and their investors. As a follow-up, Chicago-based Attorney Martignon (with Ulmer & Berne LLP) answered additional questions about the investment world in the aftermath of highly publicized financial fallout.

    Q: Jim, I came across your interesting article in research for my new book on investment risk governance. You and Attorney Meyers did a terrific job of elaborating on fiduciary duties and the relationship between asset managers and their clients. Thanks for joining me today to talk further about this important topic. Let's start with understanding your motivation to write the article.

    A: It's pretty straightforward. Our clients are mostly asset managers and broker-dealers. With so much news about regulatory mandates and the increased number of lawsuits being filed in the last few years, our clients asked for more information about their responsibilities to investors and what they should be doing differently, if anything, to mitigate their risks.

    Q: Whom do you think bears the responsibility for compliance at a fund and is good governance seen as a differentiator?

    A: Good fund managers care about doing the right thing for their investors. It's always a balancing act between the general counsel and chief compliance officer and the sales team. However, unless a fund is around for the long haul, everyone loses. Business development professionals have a lot to gain by supporting their colleagues in legal and compliance. Importantly, it's not just adhering to the letter of the law. Fiduciary duty means applying common sense as well. I recall hearing the former head of the SEC's Office of Compliance and Investigations and Examinations tell a story that stayed with me. A hedge fund chose not to do something that was legal but didn't quite pass the smell test. The examiners were impressed that the fund was sensitive to going the extra mile. 

    Q: Is there a difference between vulnerability to litigation for a fund that trades more frequently?

    A: Probably. For example, the trigger factors for a hedge fund that actively trades are likely to be different than let's say a private equity fund that can perhaps dedicate more resources to monitor fewer positions. With more active trading (and I'm not even addressing high frequency trading issues here), issues that attract scrutiny include compensation, performance reports, trading across multiple entities and delegation of some work to others (such as a custodial bank or prime broker).

    Q: You write extensively about fiduciary duties that include (a) good faith, full and fair disclosure (b) prudence in selecting agents and in making and monitoring investments (c) fulfilling representations made to clients and(d) furnishing information to clients, obtain material information and disclose limitations on inquiry or investigation. Are you saying that these duties are more important now than in the past?

    A: No. Discharging one's fiduciary duties have always been important. It's just that so many investors were surprised by situations involving investment fraud as well as those that reflected poor oversight of operational and financial risks. Things go in waves and financial reform is no different. The Madoff scandal revealed chinks in the armor. You had a name fund manager that consistently reported great returns and continued to attract investors. Given the scale of losses, it's no surprise that people took a further look at what went wrong. We've lived through investment fraud before but never had multiple catalysts occurring at the same time. After news broke about Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others, investors clamored for answers about systemic vulnerability. For example, if an investor allocates money to a hedge fund, they have to understand that they are exposed to a wide array of risks, not just the price movement of what's inside the hedge fund's portfolio.

    Continue Reading

    Model Risk and A $242 Million Outlay

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    In reading the published accounts of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") settlement with the AXA Rosenberg Group and various related entities, I'm reminded of many articles I've written that warn about the limitations of models and the critical need for ongoing tests and oversight of said models. According to the document published today regarding the AXA Settlement With the SEC, certain senior managers who were apparently made aware of a coding error (that "was introduced in 2007" and discovered in late June 2009) responded by instructing junior staff to "keep quiet about the error."

    Models are designed by human beings and require constant care and feeding. For one thing, market conditions change which therefore requires that models be revisited for their accuracy and the extent to which underlying assumptions still hold true. Second, most investment models are complex in that multiple calculations are used to generate final outputs. Third, some models are "nested" in the sense that data inputs for an ultimate algorithm are themselves modeled.If the modeled inputs are flawed, it's no surprise that Garbage In, Garbage Out ensues.

    For example, interest rate paths (levels, direction, volatility) and prepayment assumptions are integral inputs for mortgage backed security pricing models yet must first be modeled. If rates have just fallen considerably and a large number of home owners have refinanced, another fall in interest rates is unlikely to encourage yet another large spate of prepayments. The underlying assumptions that drive interest rate paths directly influence the estimates of time-valued projected cash flows associated with the mortgage bond so questions must be asked about how the inputs and the outputs are generated.

    Model errors are seldom self-contained and create a Pandora's box for those investors or traders who commit money to the "wrong" numbers. Let me elaborate.

    Suppose a trader hedges a portfolio of securities based on incorrect model outputs. The net result will be protection that is excessive (thereby costing that trader in the form of opportunity costs) or insufficient (thereby forcing the trader to realize losses that were meant to be avoided).

    Another situation relates to end users that allocate part of their portfolio to a quantitative investment strategy such as pension funds or endowments. If the "quants" get it wrong because of sloppy modeling work (and that includes errors that are not caught right away because of poor oversight, bad math or both), these institutional or individual investors have unnecessarily lost money as well as the opportunity to have allocated elsewhere. According to "AXA Rosenberg to Pay $242 Million Over 'Coding Error'" by Jakema Lewis (Securities Technology Monitor, February 3, 2011), the School Employees' Retirement System of Ohio, Los Angeles Fire and Police Pensions, the City of Fresno Retirement System, Florida State Board of Administration and the Montana Board of Investments voted with their dollars by terminating their respective relationships with AXA Rosenberg. According to "AXA Rosenberg finds coding error in risk program" by Mark Weinbraub with Jennifer Ablan, Reuters, April 24, 2010, the Marin County Employees' Retirement Association pulled $16.5 million from an AXA Rosenberg international small-cap portfolio.

    Email contact@fiduciaryleadership.com if you are interested in learning more about investment model due diligence. In the meantime, articles listed below provide information about model risk:

    Every investor must exercise care and diligence in asking tough questions and being satisfied with the answers. At a bare minimum, this requires that each investor:

    • Gain an intuitive understanding of the model and what results should raise red flags because the "smell test" fails
    • Ask to meet with the architects of the model and have them explain how they stress the model and whether there is a consistent error rate associated with outputs
    • Understand the data issues and whether quality varies across vendors, how outliers are identified and addressed and whether the model is sensitive to frequency and form of data inputs
    • Inquire as to who has the authority to modify the model and on what basis
    • Query whether internal and external auditors are comfortable with the traders' model(s) and if not, explain their concerns.

    Risk management is about so much more than good numbers. Process is everything and that includes comprehensive oversight of the models and when they are likely to fail and for what reasons. Common sense is a critical component of managing risk and will never be replaced by a number or computer. Keep in mind too that with FAS 157 and international accounting equivalents, not to mention U.S. Department of Labor mandates for ERISA plans, an investment fiduciary who invests in complicated strategies and/or securities on the basis of a "black box" approach is just asking for trouble.

    Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

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    The New York Times' Gretchen Morgensen suggests a detailed read of the just published "Financial Crisis Inquiry Report." In "A Bank Crisis Whodunit, With Laughs and Tears" (January 29, 2011), she writes that fears of a financial institution being too big to fail in the future are not to be ignored. To the contrary, she cites officials who suggest that more pain is likely on its way.

    I've just ordered a bound copy of this report and look forward to reading the 600+ pages, courtesy of U.S. taxpayers. In its January 27, 2011 press release, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission pointed the finger in the direction of:

    • Regulators who did not "stem the tide of toxic mortgages"
    • Corporate boards of financial institutions that encouraged and/or failed to curtail excessive risk-taking
    • Unethical decision-makers "at all levels"
    • Legislators who did not see the train wreck coming and lacked a "full understanding of the financial system they oversaw"
    • Individuals who borrowed more than they could afford to repay.

    So essentially, according to the authors of this new report, lots of supposedly smart people were to blame.

    The real question remains as to what lessons can be learned to forestall another economic juggernaut. An ideal outcome is that the numerous industry executives who continue to do everything right in terms of risk management and ethics are recognized as wealth creators and effective stewards of other people's money.

    Private Company Valuation and Regulatory Challenges

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    Whether or not it wins an Oscar, "Social Network" is a fascinating film. How much of it is truth with respect to the creation of Facebook is unknowable to outsiders. What does appear certain however is that regulators have concerns about how private companies, complex securities and derivative instruments are valued. Recent headlines have the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigating secondary equity trading venues over issues relating to transparency, compliance and pricing.

    One stock that has been a favorite with organizations such as SecondMarket is Facebook. According to its October 12, 2010 press release, "Nearly three dozen private companies are now traded over SecondMarket..." including the social network juggernaut led by Mark Zuckerberg, along with gaming company Zynga, Zipcar, Pandora and Groupon. Absent an IPO or acquisition, early investors and/or employees have an opportunity to sell their holdings and generate liquidity for themselves. Click to read "Q3 2010 SecondMarket Private Company Report." In the case of Facebook, there is active discussion about whether its size should force an Initial Public Offering ("IPO"). Importantly, the number of investors is only one variable that drives the decision to debut publicly traded stock. Moreover, private companies are not necessarily bad or good investments in the same way that public status does not overcome the reality that some investments are "dogs" and may not be suitable for a particular buyer.

    There is a lot to write about valuation. I am hard at work on a book about hard-to-value investing from the perspective of pensions, endowments, foundations and family offices that are held to prudent investment standards. Already, the list of lawsuits over supposedly incorrect pricing is growing long. One can expect a lot more litigation alleging bad process and whether complex, illiquid positions should comprise part of institutional portfolios. This blog, www.goodriskgovernancepays.com, will examine valuation and trading mechanisms in detail over the coming weeks.

    In the meantime, interested readers can download my September 11, 2008 testimony before the ERISA Advisory Council on hard to value assets and risk management. Posts about valuation that I've written for www.pensionriskmatters.com likewise shed light on the fiduciary risks associated with hard to value investing when good practices are absent. The archives include:

    Fortune Cookie Finance - Learning Lessons From Financial Fallout

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    While preparing for a recent keynote speech about stable value fund risk management, I took a dinner break at a local Chinese restaurant. After a satisfying meal, I reached for the fortune cookie. Lo and behold, the message eerily resembled the nature of my talk that was scheduled for the following day.

    "All things have a cause. Look into your past for answers."

    While I am not a big believer in relying on historical performance numbers as a bellwether for future returns, it is reasonable to question what went wrong n the last few years. Indeed, lessons learned about risk management failures and how investors should better protect themselves going forward are sunny spots in an otherwise gloomy economic climate.

    Here are a few of my favorite strolls down memory lane with hopes that organizations will use the rout of the last several years to improve their existing oversight structure and risk controls.

    • Numbers are only as good as the inputs and assumptions used to create them. Additionally, risk management goes well beyond numbers. How many hedge funds had terrific Sharpe Ratios in 2008 and 2009 but lousy operational or financial stop-loss points?
    • Use independent third party vendors to kick the tires on mark-to-market or mark-to-model numbers for hard-to-value positions. U.S. and non-U.S. regulators have been none too shy about making their concerns about the integrity of valuation reports, indicating that statutory mandates are coming our way in short order. 
    • Ask questions if performance appears too steady or too robust. Unless an asset manager is artificially smoothing out returns, investors should expect some bumps along the way. No one gets the trades right all the time.
    • Institutional investors should ask to meet with an asset manager's Chief Risk Officer, demand to read the fund manager's risk management policy statement and understand how traders are compensated. The goal is to avoid investing with cowboy (or cowgirl) traders who are motivated to take unnecessary risks because their bonuses are tied to inflated performance numbers.
    • Ask about how leverage is measured and managed. The use of other people's money, whether through borrowing, short selling, margin transacting and/or use of derivatives, has pros and cons. In bad times, leverage is your worst enemy because it magnifies losses. Moreover, a highly levered position(s) could force cash outlays at a time when available cash is limited and the ability to borrow more money is nigh impossible or extremely costly.
    • Banish the term "risk-free" from your investment lexicon. Nothing is risk-free. Even putting money under one's mattress is risky if the house goes on fire. Countless investment vehicles have been touted as "low risk." Expect unhappy investors to seek redress from asset managers, advisors and consultants if performance is negative or sub-par. The tolerance level for sloppy risk management, post Madoff, is low.

    Future posts will discuss other aspects of investment best practices and financial "no no's." In the meantime, early February 2011 marks the Year of the Rabbit and a time for caution about investing. Embracing an enterprise risk management focus is sure to go a long way towards calming a fear of the unknown.